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Author Topic: WEEK 5  (Read 3274 times)
deeznuts
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« on: Sat, 15-Sep-18 @ 06:06:29PM »
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So here we are at the halfway point in the season (for most teams anyways) and what a wild ride it's been so far!  We have a real playoff position competition ramping up.  This seems to be the year of the offense, so the team with the defense that can hold up the best will make the difference.  Let's take a look at week 5.

Laurier (2-1) at McMaster (2-2):  The Hawks fell to an on-fire Warriors squad, but still posted an impressive offensive performance.  Mac's defense is solid but does have some holes in it from time to time that a half-decent offense can exploit.  Laurier's D is pretty tough against the run but is an OUA middle of the pack on pass defense.  If Mac has to rely on their passing game, gonna have a lot of 2 and outs.  Taking Laurier by 14.

York (1-3) at Ottawa (2-1):  With the week off, Ottawa gets a chance to heal up and re-tool a not so head-turning offense.....2nd lowest PPG so far in the OUA; that might change this week.  If Hunchak is out, Ottawa might just line up 9 guys in the box against an offense without a passing game.  The GeeGee's improve to 3-1 taking York by 14.

Carleton (3-1) at Toronto (0-3):  Carleton's has had a hard time putting points on the board but is in the top half of the OUA for yards per game.  The shoot-out against Queen's showed that Arruda might be hitting his stride as QB.  The Ravens get to pad their offensive stats while the defense completely shuts down the Blues.  Carleton beats UofT by 30.

Western (3-0) at Waterloo (3-1):  The OUA's #1 and #3 face off in what could be another conference shoot out.  Western's offense is getting more efficient every week while their defense keeps refining as a unit.  Safe to say that the Stangs' D haven't faced an offense like the Warriors yet this year, and vice versa.  Waterloo keeps it respectable by finding the soft spots in the defense, but fall to Western by over 30.

Queen's (2-2) at Guelph (2-2):  Queen's always seems to struggle at Alumni Stadium.  The Gaels have a powerful and consistent offense while the gryphs have theirs spinning in the mud.  Defensively, Guelph poses a better unit than Queen's.  Can the gryphs step it up for their homecoming, like they did last ye....oh, yeah, sorry guys, almost forgot (LOL).   Queen's puts up too much offense for the gryphs to counter, and take the game by 10.
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TRENDING
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« Reply #1 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 12:48:22PM »
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Half Way Point trends.

IN A CLASS OF THEIR OWN
WESTERN-After all these years Marshall learns its not how fast you start but how you improve each week, peak for the playoffs and finish strong.

ON WAY UP
WATERLOO- What can one say? Program defining victory vs a top ranked team and x town rivals who have totally dominated them for years. Bertie fro CoY.

OTTAWA-Baressi is great at identifying and recruiting players (eg Buttenear) that fit his system. His short passing game isn't flashy but gets it done. Defence improved. Baressi for CoY#2

CARLETON-Play to their oppositions level but show flashes of getting it done. Gone from out of playoffs to one of the top OUA teams this year=improvement. Arruda seems to be getting better as as season goes on.

ON WAY DOWN
LAURIER-Being victims of biggest upset of the year should not sit well with them. Now they need to reverse the trend and get back on track with a good showing next week.

QUEENS-Haven't really shown much improvement from last year. They have been lucky to be where they are but could slip more with a loss this weekend. A huge game for them and their season at Guelph.

McMASTER-Continue their slow decline and need to show they can play with the big boys again. This week will be a time for them to reverse their downward trend vs a team that always gives them trouble Laurier.

GUELPH-Because everyone was talking abut how good they were going to be and all their top recruits a very disappointing start to their season. Huge game this weekend vs Queen's that could make or break their season and turn it into a disaster.

STILL JAMBRONI CLASS
WINDSOR, YORK, TORONTO-bottomfeeders
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Way closer
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« Reply #2 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 12:58:44PM »
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Western and Waterloo will be way closer than that prediction
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Ponies
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« Reply #3 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 06:58:41PM »
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Western and Waterloo will be way closer than that prediction

I highly doubt it.  Western has been coasting the last two weeks pulling starters by the half.  It will be full steam ahead next week.  Western by +50. This team offensively is stronger than last year and the D is starting to gell. Western ain't Laurier, it is a different beast.
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Ravens vs western
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« Reply #4 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 07:08:42PM »
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Western and Waterloo will be way closer than that prediction

I highly doubt it.  Western has been coasting the last two weeks pulling starters by the half.  It will be full steam ahead next week.  Western by +50. This team offensively is stronger than last year and the D is starting to gell. Western ain't Laurier, it is a different beast.

Mmmmm. So that’s why you squeaked a win out of ravens. Until the game is played you will never know. Laurier came in thinking they were gonna kill Waterloo. Never underestimate an underdog
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The Loo
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« Reply #5 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 07:40:47PM »
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Waterloo is best young team in the OUA. Best QB, and an incredible young supporting cast. Can't wait for next week.
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Back ups
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« Reply #6 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 08:36:39PM »
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I hope that western  doesn’t play the mercy card like last week. No one plays that card against them. No one else has to be that classy.  I wish the coaches could let the team play hungry, every team wants to see them fail. 
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RPW
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« Reply #7 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 09:11:05PM »
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Waterloo is best young team in the OUA. Best QB, and an incredible young supporting cast. Can't wait for next week.

Actually if one looks at some facts, not true. Waterloo is the most experienced team in the OUA if you consider the years of eligibility and number of senior players. It's easier to argue that Queens and McMaster are the youngest teams.

Team -  Average eligibility of dress roster  ( Total number of players in year 4/5)

Waterloo - 2.84  ( 20 )
Carleton - 2.74   ( 18 )
Western - 2.48   ( 12 )
Laurier - 2.43    ( 12 )
Guelph - 2.41    ( 14 )
McMaster - 2.19  ( 7 )
Queens - 2.17   ( 7 )
Ottawa - 2.16    ( 12 )
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RPWReply
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« Reply #8 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 09:36:38PM »
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Although thats a decent baseline, once you go into a lot of the nuances of the rosters make up it would look totally different.

When you talk about young teams for example, are we talking composition of starters?  In your case you used total rosters but in UW's case they would have a ton of really low ceiling players that are left over from the coaching change.

Sure UW on paper may have some older players, but they have a true sophomore pivot, a sophomore starting WR in Lam, Hinsberger rookie at MLB, Tyrell Ford true sophomore BC as well as a true freshman half. Along with that, most of the higher ceiling players ( Ternowski, Gray, Spencer Andrews). Are in their third year or less.

Its different when you talk about other teams in the sense they have had a strong recruiting pipeline or at the very least werent coming off 0-8 seasons. Ottawa U and Queens have no reason to be this young, they just haven't retained their players and recycle through younger guys more.

Not saying you are wrong by any means, just when you talk about experienced rosters its a lot more nuanced than adding numbers divided by # of players.
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Western Fan
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« Reply #9 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 10:11:03PM »
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I hope that western  doesn’t play the mercy card like last week. No one plays that card against them. No one else has to be that classy.  I wish the coaches could let the team play hungry, every team wants to see them fail. 

I couldn’t disagree more!  I like what the coaches are doing again this season...take the starters out early if they build a big lead. Play the back-ups & rookies so they get experienced & don’t risk injury to the Mustangs starters. I’lll be quite happy if they keep this up so we maximize our chances of a long playoff run and *hopefully* get another shot at the Vanier with a relatively healthy team once again.
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BirdBrain
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« Reply #10 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 10:11:26PM »
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3-1 at the pivot point of the season with Panda looming 2 Saturdays from now, Sumarah and crew have got to be happy with the 2018 Ravens. They were losing games by 3 or 5 points last year but are winning those games now. They control their destiny with wins over likely playoff contenders in Waterloo and Queens. More importantly they have a D that will keep games close until the O can kick in.

Laurier (2-1) at McMaster (2-2)... The Hawks get back on track in The House that Timmies Built but but but Mac is always tough at home. Laurier by 6

York (1-3) at Ottawa (2-1):  If Hunchak out, GGs by a bunch. If Hunchak in, GGs by a little. GGs by 10

Carleton (3-1) at Toronto (0-3): Sequeira is Ford-esque in some people's mind. Ford rushed for 104 against the Ravens while they held the rest of the Warriors to under 80 yards combined. Sequeira can run around all he wants... this is really a Panda tune-up for The Conspiracy so I hope they get everyone rest that needs rest and reps for everyone that needs reps while beating the Blues by 13.

Western (3-0) at Waterloo (3-1):  All the sudden this game becomes The Unstoppable Force meets the immovable Object. Western's D has rarely been stressed by matchups nor by scheme like Ford and his crew will stress them Saturday. Few teams have defensive athletes that can effectively spy and contain Ford while not simultaneously opening up holes for receivers to settle in and lanes for rbs to rush through. But Western does. They'll play zone with their eyes on Tre, contain him and make him hit pick them apart with his arm. If the Warrior D can keep Ford within striking distance (like they did against the GHawks)... the 4th quarter could be one for the ages. Mustangs by 6

Queen's (2-2) at Guelph (2-2): Basically loser go home. Neither of these squads can drop to 2-3 with the schedules they have left and hope to get into the playoffs in 2018. Queens has to stop the run. MooU is 3rd in the league in rushing behind only Western and Laurier. Queens is 2nd last in rushing yards per game allowed. If Guelph can run they'll grind the Gaels down. If the Queens front 7 can stiffen and stop the Gridphons... especially in the red zone... then maybe Hobbs can pull this out in the 4th with one of those 5th yr QB comebacks Sheahen hopes he has in his arm. Queens by 6
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RPW
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« Reply #11 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 10:32:39PM »
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Although thats a decent baseline, once you go into a lot of the nuances of the rosters make up it would look totally different.
Not saying you are wrong by any means, just when you talk about experienced rosters its a lot more nuanced than adding numbers divided by # of players.

Every roster is nuanced. I simply replied to an opinion with facts.
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The Hawk
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« Reply #12 on: Sun, 16-Sep-18 @ 11:29:40PM »
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LAURIER @ McMASTER-After suffering the upset of the year, a stunned Laurier team cant wait to get back on the field and take out their frustrations on their next opponent. Lauriers offence and defence are very good. Macs defence is holding tuff but their offence is having issues. Laurier comes out guns a blazin and takes Mac 21-7.

YORK @ OTTAWA-Big edge to Ottawa with home field and coming off a bye week which gave them time to rest and 2 weeks to prep for the Lions. York's starting QB may be injured and if he is York is in even bigger trouble. GGs use the short passing game to take York 28-7 and move on to the Panda bowl at 3-1..

CARLETON @ TORONTO-Ravens are starting to hit their stride and Arruda is improving every game. Old Crows have to be pleased. Toronto needs some needs offence. Ravens run and pass all over the Blues 35-7.

WESTERN @ WATERLOO-All of a sudden this one has everyone's interest and attention following Waterloos upset of the year. Stangs defence will get tested big time and in a different way vs Ford and his receivers. However Westerns hi powered attack will receive little opposition from Waterloos defence. Warriors hold tough for a while till the damn breaks. Western 30 Waterloo 17.

QUEEN'S 2 GUELPH-Queen's traditionally doesn't play well at Guelph and its Guelph's homecoming to boot. Which QB will step it up Landers for Guelph or Hobbs for the Gaels? Should be a battle royale. As this is a big game the loser is in big trouble for the playoffs. Queen's 17 Guelph 10.
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Infolike
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« Reply #13 on: Mon, 17-Sep-18 @ 07:26:28AM »
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Just a tid bit of info regarding Waterloos age

Sealy and Merlin (5th year DBs) were pulled in second half for first year DBs Lesage and Melo.

Giving Waterloo 3 first year, 1 second year and 1 5th year first team secondary which held Laurier, arguably the best receiving core in Ontario
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Kevin John
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« Reply #14 on: Mon, 17-Sep-18 @ 08:06:53AM »
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The LFP article on the Western Mustangs win over York stated that a QB named Schmidt replaced Merchant in the second half.  What happened to Kevin John who I thought was the backup QB?
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back up back up
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« Reply #15 on: Mon, 17-Sep-18 @ 08:36:59AM »
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Kevin John played the second have and then they let the 3 back up in...... everyone played on Saturday.
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Thanks
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« Reply #16 on: Mon, 17-Sep-18 @ 09:55:40AM »
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Kevin John played the second have and then they let the 3 back up in...... everyone played on Saturday.

NM
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War Wagon
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« Reply #17 on: Mon, 17-Sep-18 @ 09:58:39AM »
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Lesard and Melo were two top flight recruits - thanks for bringing that to our attention - happy to have some competition in secondary
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Random Thoughts Wk 5
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« Reply #18 on: Mon, 17-Sep-18 @ 02:23:42PM »
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Laurier/McMaster-Will Knox try and run up the score vs the Hawks? Betting is he doesn't get the chance.

York/Ottawa-Ottawa's tune up before the Panda. Specifically the offence must get in gear before Panda.

Carleton/Toronto-Carleton's tune up before the Panda. Carter runs wild vs the Lions.

Western/Waterloo-Best and deepest defence Ford has played. Mustangs dominate on offence.


Queen's/Guelph-Guelph unimpressive so far. Queen's clearly lucky to be where they are. Huge ramifications in standings. Guelph's home field and Queen's inconsistencies gives Gryphs win.
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another upset?
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« Reply #19 on: Mon, 17-Sep-18 @ 07:21:35PM »
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Laurier will run some laps this week and get their big boys in shape to throttle Mac
Ottawa looking ahead but won't matter. Btw how do you admit you used an illegal player and "forfeit" a loss. That's ridiculous.
Carleton also looking ahead but it won't matter either. U of T is a good academic school though.
Hear me jump on the back of the bandwagon here but Loo gets some much needed turnovers and upsets the other purple guys
Queen's thumps Guelph simply by big QB mismatch and Stu Lang doesn't know who to bet on so gives each school another 10 mill
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